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Thursday, December 13, 2018

East of Euphrates and Syria's still uncertain future


In Syria, the waters flowed more than once under the bridge. Actors in the field sometimes lost and sometimes lost their advantages and areas. Today's table has come to a point where almost all players are satisfied with the situation and do not want any more tension. except Turkey ...

Let's take a look bir

Diet; In other words, the Assad administration is defending its lost country to a level that will satisfy itself, even if it is not exactly the military and political support of Russia and Iran. Most importantly, the USA, clearly in countries such as France and Turkey "unasad' perspective of Syria" despite what is now the danger has passed. Although Syria was virtually divided, no one was able to find a better or better alternative than Assad. And yet she is sitting in Damascus despite all the great bad words. Devastated and sovereignty of the country and have lost their refugee status drop to one third of the population at the expense of the Syrian dictator ... that's enough. Now it is in the hands of the winners.

Russia is almost a country won't be an exaggeration if we say. It gained a clear advantage over the US and Europe, not the military bases and political determinism in this country. Not only in Syria but also in world politics, so-called Sadece racon de was able to have. The definitive winner of the Syrian file was Moscow. Besides, when compared to such a success, it is not worth the price Hem

Iran was also the other country to play with Russia. Initially, he took advantage of Russia's veto power in the UN, which in turn allowed Esad to remain on the ground after the operation. He dismissed all the organizations that were distressing and Tehran also won.

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The US has lost, but it is not a problem to lose because it does not cost anything. Obama began the period and Turkey also has not changed much despite the very clear policy to reduce inertia Trump's rants & raves. Washington, giving approval to whether Assad's presence ultimately eliminate the worst risks to Israel, is able to rub their hands. After connecting the PYD-YPG forces in the field as an ally to him no more reason to request the United States. Or even if it is not avantajlı the area of ​​global power struggle with Russia is relatively advantageous; that is, they have the comfort of breaking into commercial wars.

Turkey menni's not because today's Syria statement contains a clear safety risk along the border. Even though PKK terrorism is relatively diminished inside, the semi-state structure established in Syria represents both actual and long-term problems. Moreover, this structure is under military collateral US collateral is another distress. US relations with the Kurds in Syria, the current dominance of each case stationary with the potential to generate problems for Turkey in Ankara's experience of the recent past have been possible to map not nervous. President Erdogan announced that operations had announced in a few days for the start of the Euphrates and the eastern sits this logic.

Everyone gets what they want or in a table that is willing to not only be expected to continue living at risk in Turkey. Damascus while a leader who open hostility, it will be easy to understand on an open border in Turkey as a target of threatening Syria with no files appear to be wise to take the chance to live with an organization that is caused by the closure of Ankara.

Of course, it will not be easy to change this status quo. This is the diameter of operations for, whether it gets support from actors and field PYD / YPG outside need to see whether there will be a resistance.

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